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Hello People,submitted by Suheilaaita to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
Was going over some Publicly listed companies that mine cryptocurrencies and came through this chart below:
Source: Hive Blockchain Technologies LTD; Coinmarketcap.com; blockchain.com
In their Corporate presentation, it was written that they have seized mining bitcoin, mainly due to mining costs that became higher than the reward (un-profitability). Is this something that raises concern over the price and value of a bitcoin? and is this a trend between large mining facilities?
If this is is yet to a be trend at this moment, won't it become one in the next 4,8,12, etc years as more and more halvings are due?
Ignoring other factors, it seems imminent that either bitcoin price skyrockets to match the costs to buy bitcoin, or it flats out mainly due to miners moving towards altcoins. If the latter happens, then, bitcoin transactions won't be processed and it becomes more or less useless.
I am just thinking out loud here, and not trying to be a pessimist or an optimist. What are your views on the matter?
TLDR: Large-scale mining companies seize mining BTC, is this a trend? If BTC price doesn't accommodate the cost to mine, then BTC price might go flat. Do you agree, or disagree? Why?
Source of presentation and info: https://www.hiveblockchain.com/investors/presentation
Disclaimer: I am in no way advocating or not advocating that company, but merely presenting some information I came by.
|submitted by Miladran to Bitcoin [link] [comments]|
This is a chart I made up that roughly correlates Bitcoin market cap to Bitcoin mining costs. It is "normalized" through the halvenings. It definitely shows a downward trend. The "normalization" for halvenings applies a 100% coefficent post 2020 halvening, a 50% coefficent after the 2016 halvening and a 25% coefficent before the 2016 halvening.submitted by brianddk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The formula sprung from a discussion I was having on BTC wealth redistribution, and how the BTC holders rely on the miners to secure the chain. The counter argument was that the holders could just pay for the mining themselves.
Since bitcoin is non-inflationary, this could be thought of as a type of negative interest rate. If every holder had to offer a 100% subsidy to the miners to maintain the blockchain, what would that look like in the terms of a continual interest rate. So here's the formula.
Continual Interest function: A = P*exp(r*t) ln(A) = ln(P) + rt r = ln(A) / ln(P) / t r = ln(A/P) / t # (where t = 1/365, aka one day) r = ln(1 + I/P) / t # (where A/P = 1+I/P; with 'I' being pct growth interest = norm_coef * ln(1 + daily_mining_cost / btc_market_cap) * 365The datasource is from bitinfocharts.com referencing "Market Capitalization", "Hashrate" and "Mining Profitability" fields. "Daily Mining Cost" is derived by "Profitability * Hashrate" once correcting for unit scales.
So why is it after normalizing for the halvenings this interest function is on a negative trend over the last 5 years?
Interest -v- Date
Below are notable difficulty adjustments when hash rate fell and block times become slower for Bitcoin.submitted by theforwardbrain to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
We are 1 day 10 hours from the next difficulty adjustment. Projected difficulty adjustment is -5.61% (https://fork.lol/pow/retarget), which could indicate a small dip. However, take note that the date of last adjustment was the 5th and the 3rd halving was on the 11th, between the 5th to the 11th there was increased hashrate from miners trying to mine the final week of 12.5btc that offset the really slow block times after the halving. Therefore it will be the next difficulty adjustment after the one on the 20th that will completely reflect the slower block times after the halving. Currently the median block time taken on the 17th was around 14min (-28.5% difficulty adjustment).
For people who do not understand blockchain, basically with the Bitcoin 3rd halving, mining profitability fell for a lot of miners and they probably turned off their miners therefore the blockchain mining time became considerably slower which is reflected with slow transaction speed and higher fees as seen currently. Bitcoin sellers moving their BTC from wallet to an exchange are faced with slow transaction speed and therefore the sell pressure of BTC fell considerably which will attribute to the current price increase. There is a correlation between sell pressure and blockchain congestion (the size of the correlation is undetermined).
There is going to be a race. A race between BTC price hiking high enough to attract more miners to reduce avg block times versus the closing window of roughly 2 weeks before the next difficulty adjustment. If the price does not jump high enough, the next difficulty adjustment in the first week of June could signal a huge dip.
I am not an expert. I just did some research on the above and wanted to share with fellow Bitcoin compatriots so that we can tread with caution and not lose our shirts. I do not plan to short BTC but I will exit my BTC positions if I expect double digit negative difficulty adjustment in early June.
Bitcoin 2nd halving evidence:
2nd halving falls between the 5th and the 19th adjustment so it is only reflected on the 3rd of Aug difficulty adjustment ( -5.43%).
See the dip on the 3rd of August. Price fell from $600 to $533 about 11% drop.
Update 1:>! As of writing, I have opened a small short position on Bitcoin. Stop loss around 10k, estimated take profit around 8500. The reason is because the difficulty adjustment in the next 20 hours, even though is just -5% roughly is still significant. I direct you to look into all the difficulty adjustments in the last 2 years and you will know how rare it is. The ones I caught were all listed at the very top of the post. Since it is my first time shorting BTC, I take this as a learning opportunity so that I will have some experience to face the bigger difficulty adjustment in the first week of June. Analysis into execution, even in failure I am happy.!<
Update 2: The difficulty adjustment (DA) happened roughly 6 hours ago and the sell pressure from -6% DA did not seem to be affecting the market much. However, please take a look now at the estimation for the next DA.
On https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/ it is estimated to be -25%.
On https://fork.lol/pow/retarget estimated to be -18%.
On https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time the median block time for the last day was 16.8min.
My original proposition that the true DA of the halving can only be realized in the next DA stands and that it will be considerable. The increased sell pressure from that DA will be highly significant. That is why there is a race by current miners to get the BTC price up high enough to attract more miners to not have the DA drop too much.
Difficulty adjustment dates taken from https://btc.com/stats/diff
Bitcoin graph history for price movement taken from coinmarketcap.
Median confirmation time (block time) taken from https://www.blockchain.com/charts/median-confirmation-time
Credits to people who assisted the analysis:
kairepaire for pointing out faster block times between 5th-11th.
babies_eater for https://fork.lol/pow/retarget
moes_tavern_wifi for https://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/dashboard/
Pantamis for https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Wikipedia Commodity channel indexsubmitted by AlGo- to TSLab [link] [comments]
Commodity Index indicator is very simple in fact, though it has such a fancy name. Indicators in TSLab are based on C#. For those who have programming skills we provide API and indicator code samples at our Forum. CCI is available in TSLab as other indicators as well, but I would like to demonstrate a self-made one built according to wiki formulas. It is very easy to build new indicators by means of TSLab. CCI consists of Typical Price and Simple Moving Average. TSLab already has all to create CCI, but I showed in the indicator how to create Typical Price and Simple Moving Average. I urge you to study indicators. Making changes to indicators you get a chance to create a better one. Here is a customized CCI indicator. I applied adaptive moving average instead of simple moving average. And I applied exponential average instead of typical price. The chart in the middle shows the original CCI and the self-made one. As you may see their values are identical, as CCI in TSLab is done as it is described in wiki.
The lowest chart shows the customized indicator. It has clearly seen divergences.
Though it is not so unstable as the original one, it seems to be more flat. Wiki offers 2 types of strategies, saying that there are different points of view on this indicator. To build these strategies I am going to use my customized indicator instead of the original one. Some people think that in case with long positions we should buy, when CCI is higher than 100 and sell, when it is lower than 100. And for short positions – Sell when CCI is lower than -100 and close a short position, when CCI is higher than -100. For example this strategy doesn’t seem to be profitable with bitcoin at all.
Other people recommend using zero value as a signal calling this strategy Zero CCI. It means - buy (open a long position or close a short position), when Commodity Index is higher than zero or sell (close a long position, open a short position), when CCI is below zero.
Let’s build a script which comprises both variants and resolve the dispute by means of optimization. If we think a bit we can see that there is one more strategy besides these two, this is to use average of CCI instead of signal lines. And we can at least combine all three strategies together. For example, we can enter a position at about zero point. And close long positions when CCI crosses its average, when the indicator is higher than 100 and lower than -100 for short positions. My customized indicator won’t do for this strategy because of divergences. The original one won’t do either as it is not stable and there can be many false signals. Try to create an indicator as flat as mine or even better but with fewer divergences.
Good luck to everyone!
submitted by Coinviva to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
BTC/USD hourly chart
The Bitcoin price had low volatility ever since it dropped from $12,000 to $10,000. There was buying activity as the price tested the $10,000 support multiple times. The BTC price rose slowly to $10,600 but was met with resistance, and is settling at around $10,300 without a strong sense of direction.
In order to resume the bullish trend, the BTC price needs to build up the momentum to break the $10,600 resistance, as well as staying above $10,200. The support remains at $10,000. A break below this level would indicate a downturn and could test $9,000.
Review of the week：
Jay Hao, OKEx CEO, shared his views on DeFi that the decentralized finance space has grown exponentially over the last few months, to the point where more than $9 billion worth of crypto assets were locked in its protocols before crypto prices started dropping. This exponential growth in the last few months appears to be mainly related to a yield farming trend that started when lending protocol Compound began distributing its COMP governance token to users who interacted with the protocol. Yield farming or liquidity mining allows DeFi users to generate rewards with their cryptocurrency holdings by interacting with protocols that distribute governance tokens. Farming yield can be a profitable venture on its own, but the tokens being farmed often see their price surge as well (YFI and YFII’s success). Meanwhile, there are various risks that aren’t immediately clear (YAM’s unaudited protocols and SUSHI’s scam) Diversification is very often recommended by investors because not “putting all your eggs in one basket” helps ensure you don’t lose everything to scams, unexpected market moves or technical issues, and invest in potential gems while it’s still early.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
|submitted by MemoryDealers to btc [link] [comments]|
submitted by JuanJuanChan to defi [link] [comments]
How popular is DeFi?
Link, known as the leader of the oracle machine, has increased by 305.19% for the past three months, with an investment return of 17,052%, climbing to the fifth spot in the cryptocurrency ranking list by market value in the short term;
Since its issuance, YFI, which has soared 350 times all the way, has attracted 630 million US dollars of investment in 5 days, and was even dubbed the next Bitcoin in this circle;
From Comp for lending, KNC and BAL, governance tokens for decentralized exchanges, to SNX which is a stable currency payment network, various governance tokens of the DeFi ecosystem have emerged in an endless stream, stirring the blood in the market.
Such a boom is not only reflected in the currency price, but also pushes the brand new DEX based on the AMM (automated market making) model an overnight hit. UniSwap, known as the next-generation casino, has surpassed the world's first-tier centralized exchanges such as Binance, OKex, and Huobi in user activity, daily trading volume, and daily turnover.
With the rapid rise of UniSwap, the DEX threat theory has once again triggered heated discussions among the media and communities in the blockchain industry.
DEX on the Rise
The success of UniSwap is by no means something accidental. As early as 2018 when centralized exchanges suffered the hacker theft one after another, Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, predicted that the future lay in decentralized exchanges and that Ethereum, by developing a "better" decentralized platform, could empower the cryptocurrency community to regain the dominance from the centralized cryptocurrency exchange.
To realize the decentralized concept of returning to users their asset ownership, geeks in the blockchain industry have made many attempts.
Kyber Network, Bancor, Balancer, 0X, Curvefi, etc. are all DEXs based on Ethereum blocks. For a long time, affected by the performance of Ethereum and cross-chain issues, these DEXs were once stagnant.
With the lessons learned from Ethereum DEX, newcomers to the DEX have focused on high performance, high TPS, and rich assets as the ultimate goal for product development.
Amid the DEX threat theory, major exchanges have deployed their own public chain DEX products in a response to their respective development strategies: Binance launched Binance DEX on its Binance Chain, and Bittrex Exchange unveiled Ethfinex on the Ethereum and EOSfinex on the EOS blockchain, two platforms where users can exchange for fiat currencies; last year, CoinEx officially launched CoinEx Chain, a public chain dedicated to decentralized transactions, followed by CoinEx DEX.
Since the birth of the DEX in the blockchain world, this field has never run out of competition.
By independent development or other’s advantage?
From 2017 when it was established to 2019 as it stabilized, DEX has witnessed its annual trading volume skyrocketing from less than US$5 million to over US$2.5 billion. As DeFi gains fame and grows rapidly, DEX has grown into the most popular source of money, attracting a flood of speculators. In the past month, the trading volume of the global cryptocurrency market DEX has exceeded US$ 4 billion, more than twice the figure across 2019.
In the past two years, despite the increasingly in-depth exploration in the DEX, the cross-chain issue remains a stumbling block in its development path. DEX will not outperform CEX in the trading experience until a cross-chain solution is worked out.
The concept of DeFi went viral in 2019. With the continuous improvement of the DeFi ecosystem, the current Ethereum blockchain has developed into a complete decentralized financial system, covering mortgage lending, interest from deposit, leveraged trading, token exchange, identity authentication, and other infrastructure essential to traditional financial systems.
In addition to the mouth-watering profit, the DeFi ecosystem has also brought along explosive growth in both the type and quantity of digital assets, making DEX a market favorite. Compared with the DEX dedicated to public chains, the Ethereum-based DEX has been equipped with more possible functions and thus become more attractive thanks to the comprehensive supplementary infrastructure on Ethereum.
This also presents DEX pioneers with new opportunities. Dubbed “Swap’s summer”, the summer of 2020 has seen a market rush in Swap development after UniSwap became a hit.
Miniswap, Justswap, and btswap are no more innovative than UniSwap according to their product structures and white papers.
By comparison, OneSwap has injected unique essence into its product design and governance model based on UniSwap's automated market making.
OneSwap, which has a double mining model + order book, has received an investment of tens of millions from CoinEx even before the product is launched. It is known that OneSwap is jointly developed by a group of technology geeks who have engaged in the cryptocurrency community for many years. The project was initiated by a member of the team in an attempt to upgrade UniSwap after he experienced the convenient AMM enabled by UniSwap.
Without limit orders, users have to trade in the price set by the platform, which, however, compromised their experience. In addition, the lack of liquidity mining and transaction mining rewards cannot reduce the losses of liquidity providers caused by unilateral market conditions.
"DEX still has much room for perfection, and could even surpass CEX in trading experience"
The OneSwap development team always believes that UniSwap still has a long way to go before it becomes the strongest DEX in the DeFi ecosystem. They have endeavored to, relying on their abundant experience in exchange product development and digital currency trading, create the most powerful DEX product in the DeFi ecosystem based on smart contracts.
OneSwap is called the “upgraded UniSwap” in the community. By the combination of the Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) model in the Uniswap project and the on-chain order book, it reduces restrictions on users’ trading, and, through its OneSwap Wallet, improves user interaction methods and further enhances their experience in trading and product usage.
OneSwap boasts one-click token issuance and listing essential to DEX. Unlike the listing review mechanism on Binance DEX, the setting of OneSwap is more consistent with the concept of decentralization. Anyone can put his or her good projects and ideas, if any, into practice through OneSwap without permission.
In terms of product design, OneSwap will add to its function menu the Candlestick chart, order form, and depth chart according to user habits, apart from limit orders. These functions will offer OneSwap users an experience as smooth, easy-to-use, and convenient as in the CEX.
A new source of money? A two-pronged platform with transaction mining + liquidity mining
To support on-chain governance, OneSwap will issue a ERC20 governance token called ONES. The total number of ONES remains constant at 100 million, 50% of which will be used as community funds to support the construction of the OneSwap ecosystem and 50% will be owned by the OneSwap team. Community funds can be applied for through on-chain governance. 5% of the part held by the team will be unlocked initially, and the rest will be unlocked at a rate of 5% every six months until all is unlocked after four and a half years.
After the OneSwap product was launched, the OneSwap team will take part of the initially unlocked tokens as airdrop rewards for the open beta. Then OneSwap will officially start liquidity mining and transaction mining, and the governance token ONES will also be simultaneously launched on centralized trading platforms across the world. The first round of mining activities will last for one month, and mining rewards are yet to be made public.
Liquidity mining is a popular way of obtaining governance tokens in the DeFi ecosystem. Well-known DeFi projects including COMP, Cure, and Banner have all enabled liquid mining.
Transaction mining could date back to 2018 when Fcoin grew popular.
The transaction mining model initiated by Fcoin in 2018 once set off a bull market that year, pushing many investors into financial freedom in the rush of transaction mining. In addition, transaction mining based on the DeFi ecosystem is still a blue ocean, which is not common in the current market. The success of OneSwap's double mining model, if possible, would surely start a craze in the cryptocurrency market.
The OneSwap team has not yet announced specific mining rules, but disclosed that it has developed the smart contract code. To ensure the product security, OneSwap will invite three well-known security agencies in the blockchain industry to audit the code and announce the auditing results in early September at the soonest.
DeFi did not rise to fame without reason in 2020. Such overnight popularity is an inevitable result of Ethereum's efforts to build a decentralized consensus mechanism and improve infrastructure in the past few years. Ethereum has almost become the only public chain in the DeFi circle and the only construction base for well-known DEX. If OneSwap succeeds, it means a huge breakthrough for both DeFi and Ethereum, and decentralization in its true sense is around the corner.
submitted by UMITop to u/UMITop [link] [comments]
Ethereum cryptocurrency that comes second in terms of capitalization on the crypto market is traditionally seen as fast and profitable. However, over the last few weeks it's had a rough patch. Since early August, the network has had huge queues of transactions pending processing while fees have skyrocketed and surpassed the historical high.
The main issue though is that even fees of a few dollars per transfer don't help get rid of the“traffic jams”. The cause of this is numerous DeFi projects and a huge number of financial pyramids based on the Ethereum platform. Both generate excessive load on the network.
The situation is downright unpleasant, and our users might question whether the UMI network could face a similar challenge? We'd like to assure you it could not. The UMI network is by default protected against these problems — it cannot have “traffic jams”, fees or financial pyramids. But first things first.
How has the Ethereum network ground to a halt?
In its report dated August 4, Arcane Research that provides analysis within the field of cryptocurrency stated that over the previous week the daily size of transaction fees in the Ethereum network has surged up to a record high for over two and a half years. On August 3, the median value #%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80_%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F)of the fee amounted to $0.82, with the overall amount of transaction fees totaling $2 mln. However, it only signaled the start of real problems.
Over the next week, fees continued to grow and by August 11 the median fee value almost doubled equaling $1.57. Larry Cermak, an expert at a big analytical and news-making crypto portal The Block, wrote in his August 15 tweet that over a week the total amount of transaction fees in the Ethereum network totaled $34.5 mln, having surpassed its historical high. Meanwhile, in the Bitcoin network that is seen as too expensive the fees were almost four times lower at $9 mln.
The total fee amount paid by cryptocurrency users over a week:
Historical Growth Chart for Ethereum Fees. Source
The existing situation shows that Ethereum is actually not as fast and profitable as commonly cited. Additionally, this could happen to almost any cryptocurrency except UMI that charges no fees whatsoever. We will tell you why.
Why have these problems emerged?
There is nothing unoriginal: the Ethereum network simply can't handle an increased load. Arcane Research analysts consider that a principal cause of this situation is the constantly increasing number of the DeFi ecosystem projects built on the Ethereum blockchain. Their number is growing all the time which causes the overload of the network. As of August 12, the total amount of funds in DeFi applications reached $4.3 billion which is 19.5% higher than that in the past week. At the time of writing this article, the amount surged to $6.21 billion. You can see the current data here. What is the most unpleasant about DeFi protocols is that a lot of them are scam projects.
Which is not the worst part though. There is also another factor that significantly slows down the Ethereum network. There are a lot of pyramid-like projects that are built on the EOS platform and use smart contracts. One of them is SmartWay Forsage, which regularly overloads the network with a large number of transactions, causes traffic jams, and, consequently, leads to increased fees (keep in mind that Ethereum miners choose transactions with a higher commission). Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, revealed his disapproval of the SmartWay Forsage methodology and asked them to "leave and not pollute Ethereum ecology in the future". However, the project is slow to do this — it continues to deceive users.
This is only the tip of the iceberg of scam projects which abounds on the EOS network –– they continually emerge, work for a while, then go down as scams and are replaced with new ones. This never-ending stream of "investment projects" based on the Ponzi scheme overloads the system. This is the reason why Adam Back, a pioneer of the crypto industry and founder of the technology company Blockstream, equated Ethereum with such infamous projects as Onecoin and Bitconnect. Adam Back's solid dig at Ethereum became the subject of much debate among crypto enthusiasts.
Of course, it all doesn't mean that Ethereum is a bad cryptocurrency. On the contrary, it has a lot of advantages over other coins. But all that has happened exposes Ethereum's faults which must be eliminated. The problem is that they may not be fixable. It is far from certain that the developers will be able to get rid of all the defects as the system has huge scalability problems.
The crypto community has to admit that Ethereum, like other first-generation cryptocurrencies, has issues with capacity, fees, and scalability and is gradually becoming obsolete.
2020 is the time for young innovative cryptocurrencies such as UMI.
UMI is the flagship of new-generation cryptocurrencies.
In real fact, any cryptocurrency could face it. Each cryptocurrency charges fees which typically surge when the network is overloaded or the price is going up. Everyone will remember 2017 when in line with price growth and the network's overload Bitcoin transaction fee reached a high of around $40.
But when it comes to UMI, it works the other way round. The UMI network's advantages are high capacity, no fees, and scaling possibilities. It uses the best and fastest crypto industry solutions and excludes all inefficient methods by default. Smart optimization in combination with the Proof-of-Authority technology operating on the master node basis enables almost instant payments.
At the stage of network testing, an incredibly high capacity was achieved:
The UMI network can process transactions that Ethereum processes over a year in a few days and with no fees. More details
What is more important is that less than 0.001% of the network's overall potential is used now. The UMI network has a lot of reserve capacity and can handle hundreds of thousands of times heavier load. Moreover, with scaling possibilities, UMI can keep up with the times. The UMI code ensures the safe introduction of any upgrades — the network can be easily modified and scaled with cutting edge technology solutions. In other words, traffic jams will never pose a problem for us. UMI will instantly process all transactions, with no fees. Always.
A real-time speedometer displays the number of transactions processed by the UMI network per second. Link
Additionally, unlike Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, the UMI's staking smart contract prevents possibilities of any pyramid schemes, meaning eliminates their negative influence. Our staking is completely safe and secured against scammers. Read more about this in our article. Any UMI staking structure could work forever. In other words, you can multiply your coins at a rate of up to 40% per month for an indefinitely long period of time.
UMI doesn't inherit the disadvantages of the first-generation cryptocurrencies. This is an innovative, carefully designed network based on state-of-the-art technologies. UMI is an ambitious step toward the future. And we're making it together right now!
Sincerely yours, UMI team
The cryptocurrency profitability information displayed is based on a statistical calculation using the hash rate values entered and does not account for difficulty and exchange rate fluctuations, stale/reject/orphan rates, a pool's efficiency, and pool fees. Your individual profitability may vary. The Bitcoin difficulty chart provides the current Bitcoin difficulty (BTC diff) target as well as a historical data graph visualizing Bitcoin mining difficulty chart values with BTC difficulty adjustments (both increases and decreases) defaulted to today with timeline options of 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and all time There are many factors that affect your mining profitability. Two of the main factors that influence your profitability are: The Bitcoin price and the total network hash rate. The Bitcoin network hash rate is growing at a rate of 0.4527678% per day. Bitcoin mining began as a well paid hobby for early adopters who had the chance to earn 50 BTC every 10 minutes, mining from their bedrooms. ... - and the revenue chart for 1 TH/s looks like this: ... An often overlooked facet of mining profitability is the fees one pays to sell the Bitcoin one mines. Bitcoin Mining Profitability Plummets. On March 17, 2020, just two months ahead of the Bitcoin Halving, Bitcoin mining profitability has sunk to its lowest point ever.. Hash rate, which had also been continuously registering all-time highs, has also taken a dive today.
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